For years, critics have argued that electric vehicles only succeed because of heavy government incentives. Norway has just delivered a powerful counter-example. Even after rolling back key EV tax benefits, the world’s most electric-friendly car market has barely flinched.
Fresh January sales data from Norway came with plenty of nervous anticipation. December had seen a massive spike in EV purchases as buyers rushed to lock in incentives before new tax caps kicked in. The concern was obvious: once the incentives were reduced, would buyers drift back to fossil cars?
That didn’t happen.
EV market share dipped only slightly — from 95.8% in January 2025 to 94% in January 2026 — a change so small it’s almost meaningless. Even after incentives were scaled back, electric cars still accounted for virtually the entire market. Diesel, hybrid, and petrol cars combined barely registered, with fewer than 150 fossil-powered vehicles sold nationwide in a month.
What did change was total sales volume. January saw just over 2,200 new cars sold, far below Norway’s usual monthly average. But this wasn’t a rejection of EVs — it was a timing shift. Thousands of buyers simply moved their purchases into December to take advantage of incentives, leaving January artificially quiet. Fossil car sales didn’t rise; EV sales were just pulled forward.
More importantly, behavior has clearly shifted. In Norway, EVs are no longer an “alternative” — they’re the default. Most drivers already own or have driven an electric car, understand the benefits, and see little reason to return to combustion vehicles. The remaining fossil sales are largely niche cases, such as rental fleets catering to tourists unfamiliar with EVs.
The bigger lesson here goes beyond Norway. Once EVs reach critical mass — supported long enough for infrastructure, familiarity, and confidence to build — incentives become less important. The market sustains itself.
Norway’s experience sends a clear signal to the rest of the world: incentives help EVs get started, but once the transition takes hold, electrification proves remarkably resilient.
